The two countries are eager to resolve their differences, and doing so would further American interests.
A summary of Garo Paylan’s article in the WSJ of January 13, 2025
On the eve of U.S. President Trump’s move to the White House, Garo Paylan signs an article for the Wall Street Journal advocating the interest of brokering a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Paylan argues that the efforts required would not overstretch the US administration and that the rewards would be high. After having served as a deputy in the National Assembly of Turkey from 2015 to 2023 as a member of the HDP, Garo Paylan is currently a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a former member of the Turkish Parliament.
President-elect Trump’s promise to resolve the war in Ukraine is likely to prove easier said than done. But there is an opportunity for peace that demands far less effort yet offers significant rewards: ending the decades-long enmity between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The two historic enemies have quietly been negotiating over the past year and are on the brink of a breakthrough. A resolution to this conflict, which has fueled two wars and displaced more than 100,000 Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023 alone, is within reach. All that’s needed is a final push—one that only Washington can provide.
Much of the groundwork has already been laid by the Biden administration, which has supported Armenia’s shift away from Russia’s grip and encouraged bilateral talks with Azerbaijan. It has also tried to nudge Azerbaijan, the militarily stronger of the two, toward accepting Armenia’s overtures for peace. But President Biden didn’t get personally involved by writing to the leaders of both countries until he was already a lame duck.
Mr. Trump can swoop in and close the deal. The new president could invite Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to the White House for a historic accord. Without senior-level U.S. engagement, the negotiations risk stalling, leaving room for Azerbaijan to continue its military threats on Armenia or Russia to reassert its influence in the region. A personal push from Mr. Trump could secure the deal that ends decades of hostility in a region long dominated by Russian meddling.
Peace in the South Caucasus would deliver benefits to the U.S. and its allies by helping post-Soviet republics to reclaim economic sovereignty and hold off a neo- imperialist Russia. A peace treaty could expand access to the Middle Corridor, a vital trade route linking European markets to Central Asia’s resources, including energy and rare-earth metals, unlocking opportunities for development, trade and energy cooperation.
Mr. Trump’s personal touch could also improve relations with a difficult ally, Turkey. Armenia’s government rose to power through a peaceful democratic revolution in 2018 and has been adamant about peace with Azerbaijan and normalization with Turkey. U.S.-Turkish relations were tumultuous during the first Trump administration, but President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says he supports a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and he has promised to open the border with Armenia and restore diplomatic relations once that happens.
Pursuing peace with a long-time enemy isn’t easy for Armenia, which carries the scars of the 1915 genocide and the 2020 war with Azerbaijan. As an Armenian from Turkey and the descendent of genocide survivors, I know the complicated emotions involved. But peace with its neighbors is a matter of survival for Armenia. As I discovered in recent visits to Yerevan, Armenians understand this.
Promoting peace could also have domestic political benefits for Mr. Trump. American Christians could be moved by the prospect of supporting a Christian nation surrounded by autocratic regimes, and the influential Armenian diaspora in the U.S. would support the effort. Mr. Trump should seize this opportunity and call both leaders in his first week in office.